Alert 194 – Mozambique: Recent attacks underscore Islamist insurgency’s growing confidence and resurgence

The Islamic State (IS), on 10 May, claimed that its Mozambique affiliate, Ahlu Sunnah wa Jama’ah (ASWJ) – also known as IS-Mozambique – killed 11 Mozambican soldiers during an attack on a Forças Armadas de Defesa de Moçambique/Mozambique Defence Armed Forces (FADM) position outside the village of Miangalewa, located in Cabo Delgado province’s Muidumbe district, on 8 May. Local media confirmed this attack on 12 May but indicated that the death toll may be as high as 18.

This is the latest attack indicating ASWJ’s growing confidence and suggesting that the Islamist insurgency is undergoing a resurgence. A week prior, on 3 May, ASWJ militants ambushed a group of Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) soldiers near the village of Notwe in Mocimboa da Praia district, killing three RDF soldiers and wounding six others. Notably, it is this assault on the RDF which is the more significant incident despite the lower death toll. The RDF is a better-equipped and trained force than the FADM and insurgents have previously been reluctant to directly target RDF forces, given the risks involved. The 3 May ambush underscores ASWJ’s growing confidence and self-belief that it has the capabilities to attack these forces directly.

ASWJ is also actively expanding its area of operations. Over the past year, the militant group has expanded its presence from its strongholds in northeast Cabo Delgado to nearly every district in the province. Over this period, militants have either carried out attacks or been spotted in 14 out of Cabo Delgado’s 15 districts, confirming the counterinsurgency’s failure to confine the insurgency to its strongholds in Macomia, Mocimboa da Praia, and Muidumbe.

Over the past month, ASWJ has also begun carrying out attacks in neighbouring Niassa province. On 19 April, a group of at least 25 militants attacked the Kambako luxury hunting camp in the Niassa Special Reserve, killing two people, kidnapping at least seven others, and looting the camp of valuables. Then on 29 April, insurgents attacked the Mariri Environmental Centre in Niassa’s Meculo district and killed at least five people. These are the most significant attacks in Niassa province since the height of the insurgency’s strength in 2021. Notably, ASWJ has had a presence in Niassa since at least 2020, but the group has rarely carried out attacks here.

The 19 and 29 April attacks confirm that ASWJ has opened a second front in its insurgency, which has increased the operational threat in Niassa, especially for the popular tourist and hunting lodges located in the province’s nature reserves.

Not only has this expansion confirmed Mozambique’s failure to contain the insurgency, but it also presents significant logistical and security challenges for the counterinsurgency. Authorities will need to deploy additional security forces to Niassa to combat ASWJ’s cells in that province and protect key industries, especially tourism and mining operations. This will strain the FADM’s existing resources and undermine its counterinsurgency efforts in Cabo Delgado. The RDF is unlikely to dedicate additional troops and resources, which means that the FADM will need to manage this new front on its own.

This has also come at a time when the FADM is under greater fiscal strain. According to Mozambique’s Economic and Social Plan and State Budget 2025, defence expenditure will be cut by around MZN 11 billion (US$172 million). Similarly, external defence support is expected to decline as Mozambique’s foreign security partners cut foreign assistance and reprioritise domestic defence spending. Accordingly, Mozambique’s security authorities will need to address a growing and more complex challenge from ASWJ with fewer resources over the coming year.

It should be noted that ASWJ is not expected to return to the strength it had in 2020/2021, and it will not be able to capture and hold meaningful swathes of territory. However, the group’s guerrilla operations will gain traction, and insurgents will carry out increasingly ambitious attacks in Cabo Delgado and Niassa. The possibility of ASWJ expanding to other provinces, especially Nampula, cannot be discounted.

Mozambique’s major LNG operations are not expected to be directly threatened by the resurgent insurgency. The elevated security measures around Pemba, Palma, and specific LNG sites are sufficient to prevent insurgent attacks. However, isolated mines, tourist sites, and key roadways across Cabo Delgado and northern and eastern Niassa face an elevated risk of attacks over the coming year.