South Africa is potentially on the verge of the worst outbreak of xenophobic violence since the May 2008 riots in which at least 62 people were killed, and hundreds more were injured. Anti-immigrant sentiment has risen in the country for several months, driven by anti-immigrant protest movements such as March and March and Operation Dudula and fuelled by a frustration over economic stagnation, high crime, public sector corruption, and the elevated political environment ahead of the 4 November local government elections. As a consequence of this rising xenophobic sentiment, attacks on foreign nationals by vigilante groups have increased in frequency and culminated in anti-immigrant groups (notably March and March) declaring a deadline of 30 June for all undocumented foreign nationals to leave the country.

This deadline initially spread online but has since cemented itself as a date on which these groups will stage demonstrations demanding that undocumented immigrants depart the country. However, it has also become clear that there are plans by groups and individuals opposed to the presence of foreign nationals in South Africa to embark on vigilante attacks and lynchings against immigrants on the day. As such, it is unlikely that the 30 June demonstrations will remain peaceful and there is a strong likelihood of violent attacks and looting targeting immigrant-owned businesses.

Xenophobia is an entrenched socio-political phenomenon in South Africa. It is the manifestation of a combination of ethnic tensions and nationalist sentiment that has existed in the country for decades. Xenophobic violence is not aimed at foreign nationals writ large but is primarily targeted at immigrants from other African states and, to a lesser degree, South Asia. Anti-immigrant activists blame foreign nationals for a range of social ills including unemployment, crime, and corruption. This has been aggravated by the government’s failed border and migration policy that has resulted in thousands of undocumented migrants in South Africa.

Frustrations over this failed policy and the presence of large numbers of foreign nationals have made adopting tough-on-immigration policies a central political tenet for most major political parties. As a consequence, the condemnation from political parties of the current anti-immigrant sentiment has been muted. Even President Cyril Ramaphosa acknowledged the legitimacy of grievances around immigration in his 1 June address that attempted to moderate the situation. Ramaphosa condemned acts of violence while pledging to take a tougher stance on illegal immigration. However, these pledges were likely too late to strip the current xenophobic wave of its momentum.

Although the government has repeatedly sought to assure that there will be no widespread xenophobic civil unrest on 30 June, violent attacks are being planned. The strongest indicator of this is the open fear expressed by foreign nationals, thousands of whom have sought repatriation in recent weeks citing fears of being targeted by anti-immigrant vigilante mobs. This fear is justified; anti-immigrant attacks over the last month have resulted in dozens of people being injured and at least three fatalities.

The threat of unrest on 30 June is further exacerbated by the presence of opportunists who intend to use the demonstrations as cover to loot businesses owned by foreign nationals. Especially those in under policed communities. This threat is a particular concern, as such outbreaks of looting in South Africa can snowball into widespread lawlessness, as illustrated by the 2021 civil unrest that began as a protest against the arrest of former president Jacob Zuma.

As in 2021, the highest threat of civil unrest on 30 June will be in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province. Xenophobic sentiment is arguably highest in the province, where it is aggravated by pro-Zulu ethnonationalism. Other hotspots of unrest are expected in the urban and township areas of Gauteng, the Eastern Cape, and the Western Cape. The South African Police Service (SAPS) has claimed that it is monitoring the situation and is expected to deploy additional officers to high-risk areas. However, the police’s resources and personnel are limited, and it is doubtful that they will be able to prevent all incidents of violence and unrest on 30 June.

Regardless of how the 30 June demonstrations unfold, xenophobia is an entrenched aspect of South African politics and society and the threat of such violence will remain part of the country’s baseline risk profile. Antipathy towards foreign nationals will continue as long as the country struggles with high rates of crime and unemployment. Foreign nationals will continue to be a lightning rod for these grievances, scapegoated for government policy failures.